Calculation method
How MoonMath calculates holder risk
Holder Concentration & Exit Risk — How dangerous is the holder distribution?
The formula
The Gini coefficient over the supplied balances, plus the share of supply held by the largest 1, 10, 50 and 100 addresses. The risk level is a threshold table over the top-1 and top-10 shares.
What it reads
- A list of holder balances, after burn addresses, pools and identified custody wallets are excluded
- For the coverage path, an explicit eligible supply to divide by
What it assumes
- The supplied list is treated as the population being described
- One balance is one holder: addresses are not clustered into owners
- Exclusions are membership tests against small, deliberately conservative address sets — an unknown address is never guessed to be an exchange because its balance is large
What this does not establish
- With a truncated holder page the shares are inflated, and the top-100 share is 100% whenever a hundred or fewer holders were supplied
- An unlabelled address is an address, not an actor: a high Gini is not evidence of intent or coordination
- The risk bands are thresholds chosen in code, not a probability of a sale or of any outcome
- It describes distribution at one observation, not movement
Run it
Analyze token holder concentration, top-holder ownership and executable exit risk from observed balances. Contract categories and holder coverage determine how representative the result is.
Open the Holder Risk calculatorHow the market itself works
This page describes MoonMath's arithmetic. The mechanics section describes the market: how an order book forms a price, why order-book depth is not the same thing as pool liquidity, and what a public book does and does not let you observe.
Read the market mechanics